National Day arrival of agricultural products into the price increase channel

As the National Day approaches, the “festive effect” is fermenting on the agricultural product market. The reporter learned that the price of agricultural products such as pork and beef has dropped slightly after the Mid-Autumn Festival, but now it is beginning to re-emerge upwards, and the prices of vegetables and aquatic products will also be stimulated by the increase in festival consumption.

What is more noteworthy is that with the approaching of National Day, the consumption of agricultural products will enter the busy season, and the uncertain factors that affect the operation of agricultural products will increase. Meat, edible oil, vegetables and other agricultural products will enter the price increase channel. The Ministry of Agriculture issued a notice in this regard, requesting agricultural departments at all levels to adopt five measures to prevent the emergence of individual varieties of sluggish sales, and to avoid excessively high prices of agricultural products due to tight supply.

Analysts believe that the price increase of agricultural products is driven mainly by rising costs. After the holiday season, it does not mean that prices of agricultural products will definitely fall back. Even some experts believe that the overall trend of prices of agricultural products will not change.

Rising trend of edible agricultural products prices rose 6 weeks Data released by the Ministry of Commerce on the 27th showed that prices of edible agricultural products rose for the sixth consecutive week.

As of last week (September 19 to 25), the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables rose by 4.2% from the previous week, among which prices of tomatoes, Chinese cabbage and cabbage were among the highest. The retail price of grain and oil rose slightly, among which peanut oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil rose by 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.2% respectively. Rice and flour rose by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

According to the data from the Ministry of Commerce, the price of meat fluctuates slightly, among which lamb, beef and white broiler chickens rose by 1.3%, 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively, while pork prices dropped by 0.6%.

Sogou.com analysts believe that the average price of pigs slaughtered nationwide on the 27th was 18.95 yuan/kg, down 0.2 to 0.3 yuan from last Friday, and the decline was more pronounced. In addition to the relative concentration of pre-holiday slaughter and local government regulation, pig disease or price formation has affected new factors. According to reports from farmers in some areas, local swine disease has shown signs of recovery, and the risk of epidemics in the later stages has increased, prompting farmers to accelerate slaughter, which has caused local prices to drop significantly.

The price of eggs that climbed to a high level in the previous period continued to rise, but the increase further narrowed. Liu Tong, head of the statistics department of the Agricultural Products Wholesale Market in Xinfa Land, believes that since August, the supply of eggs has been relatively adequate. Due to the impact of factors such as rising production costs, transporting eggs to the north and festivals, the price of eggs has remained stubbornly high. And constantly refresh the historical record. After entering mid-September, the supply of eggs was greater than the demand began to show.

Xinhua News, an economic analyst, predicts that the temperature will drop, the egg laying rate will increase, and this year's newly-reserved laying hens will enter the peak period of egg production. Before the end of the year, the national egg prices will fall.

In addition, the prices of aquatic products have stopped falling and have risen for two consecutive weeks. The average wholesale price of 8 kinds of aquatic products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce rose by 0.2%, among which the prices of small yellow croaker, big yellow croaker and carp rose by 2.2%, 2% and 1.6% respectively. According to the Xinhua News Agency’s national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural product price system monitoring, the current average daily price of freshwater fish is higher than the same period of last year, which is an increase of between 1 and 20%.

The festival effect of pushers has a greater impact on vegetables. "Every year once the holiday is over, the price will go up steadily." A merchant operating pork in the Beijing Xinlihou Farmers' Market said to the reporter of the "Economic Information Daily" that they are now buying from the wholesale market. The price of pork ribs rose by 1 jin per catty before the Mid-Autumn Festival. Another egg trader said that the price of eggs rose from 5 yuan/kg in the recent past to 5.3 yuan/kg, and the price during the holiday season will increase by 100%.

In fact, from the end of August to mid-September, the market for edible agricultural products set off the Mid-Autumn Festival market. The Mid-Autumn Festival was preceded by the peak period for the preparation of the pastry enterprises. The price of sugar and eggs rose significantly.

With the approaching of October, the "National Day Quotes" has once again appeared. Taking pork prices as an example, the national pork price has risen steadily since late August, and the rise has continued until the Mid-Autumn Festival. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of pork dropped slightly, but with the arrival of the National Day holiday, prices rose again.

According to the Xinhua News Agency's national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price system monitoring, the price of pork in the country has basically stabilized since the last week, and the price of pigs' hip and sharp pork and pork pork has fluctuate no more than two cents.

Hebei Chengde Information Collector reported on the 27th that affected by the holiday effect of the National Day, the local pork price rose again. The prices of pigs' hip and sharp pork and pork pork rose 3.1% and 3.2% respectively on June 26, reaching 16.50 yuan and 16.00 yuan per catty respectively. yuan.

The Xinhua News Agency's national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price market system also showed that since mid-August, the national beef price has continued to rise, and has declined slightly since the Mid-Autumn Festival. It has also started to rise since September 16. At present, the prices of Chinese mutton and mutton meat are all significantly higher than the same period of last year. Prices on September 27 increased by 14.7% and 16.7% year-on-year respectively.

Zhai Xiaopeng, market analyst at the China Productivity Promotion Center, told the Economic Information Daily that fresh products, especially vegetables, were greatly affected by the “holiday effect.” From the data of the four weeks before September, vegetable prices have stopped falling. , month-on-month increase of more than 10%.

The Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the 26th that all districts and counties' competent authorities should do their best to monitor and supervise the market price during the National Day holiday and the next stage, focusing on strengthening the large wholesale market, community farmers markets, supermarket grain, oil and meat. The monitoring and inspection of market supply and market price changes of daily necessities such as eggs, vegetables and dairy products.

It is expected that the overall upward trend will not change. After entering in October, meat, grain, and other agricultural products will usher in the peak season for consumption, and the contradiction between the supply and demand of some varieties will be even more intensified, which will bring a lot of pressure to increase prices.

The Ministry of Agriculture recently issued a notice that as the National Day approached, the consumption of agricultural products entered the peak season, and at the same time, due to the centralized listing of agricultural products in autumn, the climate gradually turned cold, and the uncertain factors affecting the operation of agricultural products markets increased. The notice requires that the agricultural departments at all levels take five measures to prevent the emergence of individual varieties of slow-moving sales, and avoid the excessive increase in prices of agricultural products due to tight supply.

“From October to the beginning of New Year’s Day and before the Spring Festival, the consumption of livestock products, including pork, was concentrated. In particular, during the Spring Festival of the rural market, consumption accounted for a large proportion of the whole year, and the situation of insufficient supply did not change significantly. Pork prices There may also be a sharp rise.” Guo Yiyong, an analyst at Eastern AIG Agricultural Consulting, told the Economic Information Daily reporter.

Liu Tong, head of the statistics department of the agricultural wholesale market in Xinfa Land, believes that it is still in the off-season period of consumption. Although the volume of pork listed dropped significantly compared with the same period of last year, high meat prices did inhibit some of the demand, so the price of meat dropped. Once in the peak season of consumption, the rebound in the price of meat is inevitable.

In the edible oil market, when the first half of the year was in the off-season, the reporters had heard from merchants in the agricultural product market that “the market is cold and the price is not going up”. As Jinlongyu and other brands began to raise prices and the arrival of the consumer season, edible oil prices began to rise.

The grain and oil distributor at Xinlihou Farmers Market pointed to the goldfish 5 liters of blending oil and told reporters that the price per barrel was 58 yuan two weeks ago, and now it has risen to 62 yuan, and thereafter it may raise prices.

With the delisting of open vegetables, the price of vegetables will also enter the seasonal upward channel. Xiaopeng Peng believes that there is a cyclical factor in the rise in vegetable prices, because the cost of greenhouse vegetables is higher than that of open vegetables, and the transportation cost of “Nancai Beiyun” is not small. However, due to the expansion of the planting area, it is unlikely that there will be a sharp rise in the previous year. The ring growth rate after the National Day holiday should fall back from September.

Guo Huiyong believes that the overall price of agricultural products is going up and the upward pressure is still very high. At present, grain prices in the international market are at a relatively low level, and there may be a substantial increase in the latter period. In particular, soybean and soybean meal prices are easily transmitted to the domestic market and will drive the price of feed and livestock products.

For many analysts, the increase in prices of agricultural products is driven more by rising costs than by seasonal demand. Qin Fu, Director of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that the overall upward trend in the prices of agricultural products will not change. In particular, the increase in production materials, labor costs, and transportation costs will affect the increase in prices of agricultural products. Larger.