Supermarket supermarkets in Shanghai and other places have shown signs of slow-moving milk

At the entrance of the Tesco Supermarket on Jiangning Road in Shanghai, a box of Mengniu milk was stacked on the doorway. A large billboard hung in front of it and read "Buy One Get One Free." In order to get rid of the negative impact, Mengniu urgently implemented big promotions in supermarkets in Shanghai. In addition to Mengniu's pure milk, other products such as sour milk and fruity milk have also been used to buy a two-off discount.

The shop milk counter salesman told reporters that since the Mengniu product aflatoxin M1 broke out in December last year, the sales of Mengniu milk in the store have fallen significantly, and it is estimated that more than half of the sales decline. However, with the recent promotion efforts of Mengniu, sales have picked up. “Before this, Mengniu and Guangming both had similar sales of milk products. Now, although they have picked up, they are still two to three percent less than bright milk,” said the salesman.

After Mengniu's "Aflatoxin Incident" fell, consumers were worried about Mengniu's products. Some supermarkets and convenience stores often encountered the question of whether the safety of Mengniu milk was raised when consumers bought it. Some consumers even turned to buy other brands of milk. .

The reporter saw in supermarkets in Shanghai that Mengniu milk showed signs of slow sales. In many supermarkets such as Lianhua, Homeless, and Tesco, the production date of Mengniu milk is basically 2011, and there are few new milk listed in 2012. The fresh milk products on the side of the milk counter are basically produced in 2012. A Dia’s daily cargo clerk on Jiangning Road in Shanghai told reporters that the number of expired Mengniu milk had recently increased.

Similar situation in other regions, a foreign supermarket related person in southern China told this reporter that after the Mengniu incident, the overall sales of Mengniu's normal temperature milk at several supermarkets in Guangzhou fell by about 30%. Mengniu's sales of several room temperature liquid milk products also fell in Wuhan Supermarket sales. Yesterday afternoon, a Mengniu promoter from a Zhongbai Warehouse at Wuchang Simenkou told reporters that since New Year's Day this year, Mengniu's sales of normal-temperature milk had decreased by about 30%. “Most children's milk and accidents (UHT pure milk) are not sold. move". The promoter said that not only Mengniu's products have been slow-moving, but Yili and Bright have also been implicated, and their sales have fallen slightly.

However, due to the lunar new year's arrival of sales of gift products, Wuhan Mengniu’s high-end product, Terumu’s sales, rose.

The “double oligarch” pattern is temporarily difficult to rewrite. At present, Mengniu has taken various measures to deal with it. The reporter saw at a supermarket that Mengniu’s notice read a letter from the Xinhua News Agency’s AQSIQ on December 30 stating that it was December 23. In the future, the geological inspection agencies did not find that Mengniu's aflatoxin M1 exceeded the standard. Promotional efforts are unprecedented, and the price of the box of cow milk “240ml×12” of Inner Mongolia’s Tesco is RMB 22.4, and the price of each box after buying one get one is reduced to RMB 11.2. The price of a box of Bright Milk equivalent to this price is RMB 33. The price gap is close to 66%.

However, even if this incident does not happen, the sales of Mengniu deserve attention. A recent research report released by a domestic brokerage firm pointed out that last year Yili cooperated with the development and sinking of channels, and high-end products such as Jindian and Shuhua Milk were expanded from the previous first-tier cities to second-tier and third-tier cities, with rapid growth. Mengniu’s performance was slightly flat last year. Except for the special Luxun, the highlights of the other high-end new products were few. The sale of Mengniu Luxunsu was expected to be between 4.5 billion and 5 billion yuan last year.

Song Liang, an analyst at the China Circulation Productivity Promotion Center, told the reporter that apart from the more serious decline in sales of UHT pure milk, other high-end products also declined. Although sales of short-term Mengniu are expected to stop falling, sales of Mengniu are unlikely to be Complete recovery after 2 to 3 months.

However, Song Liang believes that this incident has little effect on the "double oligarch" pattern of the domestic dairy industry and is not enough to change the current industry structure.

"This incident can only temporarily affect market share in the coming months."

Lei Yongjun, general manager of the company's planning agency at Putian Road, Beijing, told the newspaper that he expected this incident to have a reduction of about 5 billion yuan in sales of Mengniu this year and that the actual sales cycle of liquid milk was only about 45 days. It may directly bring about more than a dozen billion of unsalable goods.

The capital market has a different attitude towards Mengniu. On December 30 last year, COFCO spent 41.12 million Hong Kong dollars to buy 2.2 million shares of Mengniu's shares at an average price of 18.689 Hong Kong dollars. After the increase, the shareholding of COFCO Group increased from 27.96% to 28.09%.

Citi issued a research report yesterday, which has cut Mengniu’s target price by 12% to HK$26.